Anthropic's $30B ARR could overtake Alphabet by mid-2028, analyst projects

Anthropic's annualized recurring revenue hit $30 billion in April 2026, marking a 30-fold increase in fifteen months. Venture investor Joseph Jack, founder of OSS Capital, projects this trajectory could put the company ahead of Alphabet's total revenue by mid-2028.

Jack's analysis assumes a decelerating growth scenario — a conservative baseline. Even so, his model places Anthropic at $100 billion ARR by year-end 2026, $340 billion in 2027, and $575 billion by mid-2028, the point where it would cross Alphabet's revenue line. By 2030, Anthropic would reach $2 trillion in annual revenue under the same projections.

What stands out

1. 01Enterprise customers are doubling fast. The number of Anthropic customers spending over $1 million annually jumped from 500 to 1,000 in under two months — a sign both of new enterprise deals and existing customers scaling token usage.
2. 02Token demand growth is 10× Gemini's rate. Anthropic's token volume grew tenfold in the most recent quarter, while Google's Gemini usage rose 60 percent. That gap is the primary driver of the projected 2028 crossover.
3. 03Compute capacity is already contracted. Anthropic has locked in large-scale compute agreements to support projected infrastructure needs, removing near-term supply constraints.
4. 04The baseline momentum is steep. ARR grew from $1 billion in January 2025 to $9 billion by December 2025, then $30 billion by April 2026 — a 3.3× jump in four months. Even with significant deceleration, that baseline carries the company past $100 billion by year-end 2026.
5. 05 The shift appears structural rather than cyclical — companies are replacing legacy tools with Claude-powered workflows locked into multi-year contracts with predictable expansion paths.